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The rumors are building and the sabers are rattling. Could it be that President George W. Bush finally will put action behind the war of words toward Iran? Some writers from the UK Telegraph seem to think so ( Bush setting America up for war with Iran):

Pentagon and CIA officers say they believe that the White House has begun a carefully calibrated programme of escalation that could lead to a military showdown with Iran.

Though the sources are unnamed, the recent flurry of activity and the rare French comment essentially saying war in on the horizon, make for some interesting speculation.

What is most likely happening here is a calculated PR campaign to push Iran to meaningful dialogue. It’s common knowledge that Iran is fighting a proxy war by supporting and supplying insurgents in Iraq (and from their perspective, why not?). The negative sentiment that surrounds Bush and the hostility he faces from Congress make taking Iran head-on a politically dangerous move.

Does Bush have the guts to take on Iran? Do the American people have the guts? The military aspect of the confrontation would be easy enough initially. The superiority of US war machine can quickly and decisively dismantle tactical and strategic targets. The bigger questions will be “what next” after the bombing. Like Saddam’s Iraq, it’s easy to pick off targets with cruise missiles and stealth bombers. The key lesson though is that those strikes didn’t stop Iraq from being a problem in the Gulf.

Would there be a revolution and regime change because of the strikes? Doubt it. Will the US invade Iran? No way. Will the strikes cause the Iranian leadership to repent from being enemies of America? Nope. Ultimately, it would be a black eye, a bloody nose, a broken lip, and that’s all.

More interesting and provocative would be the targeting of Iranian leadership. It’s hard to make a case for strategic targeting alone. The problem is the leadership of Iran. Nuclear facilities don’t build themselves. Taking the war to Ahmadinejad would send the clearest signal that the US will not play games with rogue terrorist sponsor nations. Anything less than that, is a waste of time.